For the first time in a few years, the San Diego market is doing something interesting. Not booming. Not crashing. Moving — deliberately, and in ways worth paying attention to if you're thinking about buying or selling this year.
Here's what the data is actually telling us, and what it means for the decisions on your plate.
— The Numbers, Straight —
As of the most recent reporting:
Median sale price: around $950,000 — down roughly 1.5% year-over-year
Days on market: 25 days — unchanged from this time last year
Inventory: approximately 2.8 to 3.2 months of supply — still a seller's market by any traditional measure
Mortgage rates: 30-year fixed hovering in the low-to-mid 6% range, with most forecasters projecting a drift toward the high 5s by year-end
Sales volume: closed sales climbed meaningfully from January into March, with March showing a year-over-year increase
A market under 6 months of supply is a seller's market. San Diego has been sitting around 3. That hasn't changed.
— What's Different This Spring —
Three things are reshaping how deals are getting done this year.
01. Rates have come off the peak. We're not back to pandemic-era money, and we won't be. But the move from 7%+ to the low 6s is meaningful. On a $720,000 loan, that shift alone is worth hundreds a month in payment.
02. Inventory is loosening — slowly. More homeowners are listing. Some of them held 3% rates for years and finally have a reason to move: job changes, downsizing, upsizing, relocation. That "golden handcuffs" effect is starting to wear off at the margins.
03. Buyers are re-engaging. January and February brought a noticeable jump in loan applications. March closed stronger than the same month a year prior. The sidelined-buyer pool is thinning.
— The Two Markets Inside One Market —
San Diego isn't one market. It's dozens.
Coastal North County — Del Mar, Encinitas, Carlsbad, Solana Beach — continues to run tight. Low turnover, strong school districts, and limited land keep pricing firm, sometimes up.
Inland and entry-level segments look different. More inventory. More negotiation room. Buyers in the $500K-$1M range have options they didn't have a year ago.
Condos and townhomes are softening faster than detached homes. Attached median prices are down about 2.2% year-over-year, while detached prices are holding or growing modestly.
If you're reading a single headline number for "San Diego," you're reading the wrong thing. The neighborhood matters more than the county.
— If You're Selling —
Well-priced, well-presented homes are still moving fast — the 25-day average proves it. What's changed is the penalty for overpricing. Homes that miss on price or presentation are sitting, and the longer they sit, the more buyers assume something is wrong.
The playbook this spring: price to the comps, invest in presentation, and don't test the market. Buyers have more patience than they did two years ago and they're using it.
— If You're Buying —
You have leverage you didn't have at the peak. Don't mistake that for a soft market. Good homes in good neighborhoods still draw competition.
The difference now: you can often negotiate on price, credits, or repairs — especially on homes that have been listed for more than three weeks.
Get fully underwritten before you shop. In a market where well-priced listings still move in under a month, pre-approval isn't enough. Underwritten approvals win.
— Looking Toward Summer —
If rates continue to drift down through Q2 and Q3, expect more inventory and more buyer activity — which typically cancel each other out on price.
The structural story of San Diego hasn't changed: limited land, strict zoning, constant demand. That keeps long-term fundamentals strong even when short-term data moves around.
For anyone who's been waiting for the market to "settle" before making a move, this spring is the closest thing to that we've seen in years.
Your move depends on your situation, not on the headline. That's the conversation worth having.
